Monday, March 2, 2009

Operation New Hope In Mosul

On February 20, 2009 the Iraqi government announced the beginning of its third security offensive in Ninewa province. Like the previous ones Operation New Hope is aimed at securing the troubled city of Mosul. Operation Lion’s Roar/Mother of Two Springs launched in May 2008, and Mother of Two Springs II in October 2008 had little affect on the number of casualties in the city in the long run. In January 2009 attacks were down before the provincial elections however. Afterwards casualties went back up, but still at a lower level then in 2008. Operation New Hope appears to be a more targeted campaign, and involves U.S. troops. It may be the last major joint Iraq-U.S. military operation before the June deadline for U.S. troops to be out Iraq’s cities, but like the previous ones does not address the major causes of violence in the city.

Operation New Hope has two stated goals. First it is a targeted campaign aimed at arresting suspects on a wanted list. On the opening day 74 people were arrested. Second it hopes to increase the government’s presence in certain areas outside of Mosul. Iraqi forces are in the lead, but the U.S. apparently has a large role. That’s shown by the fact that nine American soldiers were killed in the city in February 2009 before and during the offensive. Mosul is one of the few areas where U.S. forces have incorporated the Iraqis troops into their command center.

The offensive has been expected for quite some time. Back in November 2008 there were reports that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was considering a new operation there. The Prime Minister first talked of clearing Mosul back in December 2007. The moves against the Mahdi Army in early 2008 however delayed it until May. It was originally called Operation Lion’s Roar, but was then renamed Mother of Two Springs, a nickname for Mosul. Thirty-two thousand soldiers and police were committed to the operation, but by September Maliki admitted that it had not worked and blamed the citizens for not cooperating. As reported here before, Mother of Two Springs had little affect on the number of casualties beforehand and afterwards. When Christians were attacked in the city in October the government again committed more police to secure Mosul.

It wasn’t until the end of 2008 that attacks finally dropped, reaching a low in January 2009 as the country prepared for the provincial elections. According to press reports by January Mosul averaged just 1.8 deaths per day and 2.74 wounded compared to 3.61 deaths and 6.06 wounded per day in October 2008. One major difference between 2008 and 2009 has been the lack of mass casualty bombings. The city however was the deadliest in the country for politicians, and by February attacks and casualties started climbing back up.

Selected Casualty Numbers For Mosul Based Upon Press Reports


April 2008 – One Month Before Operation Lion’s Roar/Mother Of Two Springs
63 attacks/incidents – 2.1 attacks & incidents/day
71 killed – 2.37 killed/day
209 wounded – 7.0 wounded/day
42 kidnapped

June 2008
49 attacks/incidents –1.97 attacks & incidents/day
100 killed – 3.33 killed/day
279 wounded – 9.3 wounded/day
4 kidnapped

October 2008 – Month of Operation Mother Of Two Springs II
92 attacks/incidents – 2.96 attacks & incidents/day
112 deaths – 3.61 deaths/day
188 wounded – 6.06 wounded/day

November 2008
65 attacks/incidents – 2.16 attacks & incidents/day
53 deaths – 1.76 deaths/day
249 wounded – 8.3 wounded/day

December 2008
65 attacks/incidents – 2.09 attacks & incidents/day
68 deaths – 2.19 deaths/day
181 wounded – 5.83 wounded/day

January 2009 – Provincial Elections
52 attacks/incidents – 1.67 attacks & incidents/day
56 deaths – 1.80 killed/day
85 wounded – 2.74 wounded/day

February 2009
81 attacks/incidents – 2.89 attacks & incidents/day
58 deaths – 2.0 deaths/day
111 wounded – 3.96 wounded/day

The major cause of the violence in the city is the divide between Arabs and Kurds. In the January 2005 elections Sunnis boycotted, resulting in the Kurds taking over the provincial council. The Kurds also have aspirations to annex five areas around Mosul in northern Ninewa. Both have caused great anger amongst the province’s Arabs. To make matters worst, during the Surge many Al Qaeda operatives and other groups were forced north and settled in Mosul, which has been called the last urban stronghold for the insurgency. All together this has caused an explosive mix. Many of these armed groups have tried to portray themselves as the protectors of the Arabs against the Kurds, and continue to reject participating in the political system. As noted here before, Prime Minister Maliki attempted to exploit this division for his own political purposes by courting the Arabs in the city to oppose the Kurds. Maliki removed Kurdish units and officers, replacing them with Arab ones, and offered Arabs a role in reconstruction. Rather than offering reconciliation, the Prime Minister pushed for further ethnic differences.

The provincial elections may not help this process. The Al-Hadbaa party won an outright majority in the vote running on an explicitly anti-Kurdish campaign. The party’s leader Atheel al-Nujafi who will probably become the new governor has said that all the sitting Kurdish officials need to be replaced on the provincial council, and that he will not work with any Kurds that put Kurdish concerns before those of Ninewa. The current deputy governor who is a Kurd has accused Al-Hadbaa of wanting to rid Mosul of Kurds.

Al-Hadbaa’s Nujafi believes that Operation New Hope will do little to solve the province’s problems. He may be right. Until the divide between Arabs and Kurds is resolved there will be violence in Mosul. Prime Minister Maliki enflamed the situation by taking an anti-Kurdish turn in late 2008, and the Al-Hadbaa party has a similar position. Many were hoping that the provincial elections would help turn many of these conflicts into a political one, but in Ninewa’s case that may not be true. The real test will be whether violence goes back to 2008 levels now that the voting is over or remains at their current lower rate.

For more on Mosul see:

Mosul – Dangerous Place For Politicians

Mosul Remains One Of The Most Violent Cities In Iraq

Mosul: The New Battleground Between Maliki And The Kurds

New Security Offensive In Mosul?

Christians In Mosul Update
Bad Times For Iraq’s Christians

Back To Mosul

Mosul Update

The Security Situation In Mosul

SOURCES

A Pakistan News, “1 Policeman Killed, 10 injured in Separate Attacks In Iraq,” 12/1/08
- “Twin Blasts in Northern Iraq 2 Killed,” 12/31/08

Agence France Presse, “Iraq arrests dozens of ‘terrorists’ in Mosul,” 2/21/09

Ali, Fadhil, “Iraqi Government Launches Operation to Expel al-Qaeda from Mosul,” Terrorism Focus, Jamestown Foundation, 5/20/08

Areef, Slaem, “Mosul a ghost city as troops press ahead with offensive,” Azzaman, 5/15/08

Arraf, Jane, “As Iraq calms, Mosul remains a battle front,” Christian Science Monitor, 12/17/08

Associated Press, “Blast in Iraq kill 33, injure Iraqi general and four GIs,” 12/1/08
- “Bombs tear through Baghdad, Mosul,” 12/1/08
- “Two Iraqi policemen killed by U.S. troops,” 2/1/09

Associated Press and Agence France Presse, “Bombings in Baghdad kill 14,” The National, 11/4/08

Aswat al-Iraq, “2 army personnel wounded in IED blast in Mosul,” 2/26/09
- “2 civilians killed by U.S. warplane fire west of Mosul,” 11/1/08
- “2 civilians killed in Mosul,” 12/29/08
- “2 gunmen killed in Ninewa,” 11/13/08
- “2 IEDs wound 3 soldiers in Mosul,” 12/27/08
- “2 Iraqi soldiers killed in Mosul attack,” 11/1/08
- “2 killed, 25 wounded in 2nd suicide bombing in Mosul,” 11/27/08
- “2 mortars leave 4 soldiers wounded in Mosul,” 2/13/09
- “2 soldiers wounded by gunmen fire in Mosul,” 2/13/09
- “2 wanted men arrested, IEDs rip through Mosul,” 2/18/09
- “2 women injured in attack on PUK in Mosul,” 2/24/09
- “2 wounded by IED in Mosul,” 2/4/09
- “2 wounded in blast in Mosul,” 12/25/08
- “3 civilians injured by bomb blast in Mosul,” 1/26/09
- “3 cops killed in Mosul gunfire,” 1/11/09
- “3 gunmen killed in Mosul,” 1/23/09
- “3 missiles hit Mosul hospital, wound civilian,” 2/25/09
- “3 policemen killed by gunmen in Mosul,” 2/11/09
- “3 soldiers, policeman wounded in Mosul,” 12/4/08
- “3 women wounded by U.S. fire in Mosul,” 2/3/09
- “3 wounded in hand-grenade attack in Mosul,” 2/15/09
- “3 wounded in IED in Mosul,” 2/16/09
- “4 civilians injured in suicide explosion in Mosul,” 11/27/08
- “4 civilians wounded in Mosul blast,” 1/19/09
- “4 civilians wounded in Mosul blasts,” 11/10/08
- “4 killed, 6 wounded in Iraq violence in 24 hours,” 11/1/08
- “4 police personnel wounded in car bomb blast,” 1/11/09
- “4 sound bombs explode inside Mosul university,” 1/14/09
- “5 houses set on fire in Ninewa,” 2/16/09
- “5 IEDs rock Mosul; no casualties reported,” 12/11/08
- “6 suspects nabbed, IED defused in Mosul,” 2/18/09
- “6 women injured in Mosul blasts,” 12/1/08
- “12 killed, injured in Mosul attack,” 2/2/09
- “23 killed, injured in acts of violence until Friday afternoon,” 1/9/09
- “Army forces detonate bomb in Mosul without damage,” 2/6/09
- “Bike bomb explodes in Mosul, no casualties,” 1/7/09
- “Blast in Mosul kills policemen, wounds 6,” 11/17/08
- “Blast near KDP headquarters in Mosul,” 2/23/09
- “Bomb explodes near police motorcade in Mosul,” 1/6/09
- “Bomb explodes without casualties in Kirkuk,” 2/11/09
- “Bomb explodes without casualties in Mosul,” 2/10/09
- “Bomb wounds child, mother, army seizes TNT in Ninewa,” 11/14/08
- “Cab driver found dead in Mosul,” 1/7/09
- “Car bomb defused in eastern Mosul,” 2/19/09
- “Car bomb defused in eastern Mosul,” 2/23/09
- “Car bomb defused in Mosul,” 12/26/08
- “Car bomb kills cop, injures 5 in southern Mosul,” 2/19/09
- “Car bomb wounds 4 cops in Mosul,” 12/30/08
- “Child wounded in IED blast in Mosul,” 11/2/08
- “Civilian body found in Mosul,” 2/10/09
- “Civilian killed, 16 wounded in Mosul bombing,” 12/28/08
- “Civilian killed by U.S. fire in Mosul,” 12/15/08
- “Civilian wounded by gunmen fire in Mosul,” 2/6/09
- “Civilian wounded by U.S. fire in Mosul,” 2/4/09
- “Civilian wounded in attack in Mosul,” 2/25/09
- “Civilian wounded in car bomb attack in Mosul,” 12/7/08
- “Cop injured, two bombs explode in Mosul,” 1/12/09
- “Cop killed by bomb blast in Mosul,” 1/28/09
- “Cop killed in bomb blast in Mosul,” 2/18/09
- “Cop, soldier killed in Mosul attacks,” 12/13/08
- “Cop wounded in gun attack in Mosul,” 12/2/08
- “Explosion in front of KDP building in Ninewa,” 12/18/08
- “Female body found east of Mosul,” 2/13/09
- “Gang of kidnappers arrested, body found in Mosul,” 2/27/09
- “Gunmen kill cop in central Mosul,” 2/23/09
- “Gunmen kill former cop in Mosul,” 12/30/08
- “Gunmen kill officer in Ninewa,” 2/24/09
- “Gunmen set AsiaCell’s power generators on fire in Mosul,” 1/2/09
- “Gunmen set 2 AsiaCell’s towers ablaze in Mosul,” 1/6/09
- “Gunmen shoot down policeman in Mosul,” 11/24/08
- “Gunmen wound Mosul medicine college dean,” 12/14/08
- “Hand grenade wounds 3 cops in Mosul,” 2/24/09
- “IED blast targets police patrol in Mosul,” 2/8/09
- “IED injures U.S. soldier in Mosul,” 12/16/08
- “IED rocks IIP building in Ninewa,” 12/11/08
- “IED targets U.S. patrol in Mosul; no casualties,” 12/16/08
- “IED targets U.S. patrol, no casualties,” 1/12/09
- “IED wounds 2 in southern Mosul,” 1/18/09
- “IED wounds 4 in Mosul,” 2/3/09
- “IED wounds 5 in Mosul,” 1/26/09
- “IED wounds civilian in Mosul,” 2/28/09
- “IED wounds soldier in Mosul,” 2/14/09
- “IED wounds soldier in Mosul,” 2/21/09
- “IIP leader gunned down in Mosul,” 2/11/09
- “Iraq army Mosul HQ mortared,” 12/3/08
- “Iraqi soldier injured by bomb blast in Mosul,” 11/29/08
- “Journalist killed by policeman in Mosul,” 2/5/09
- “Local elections candidate gunned down,” 12/31/08
- “Military policeman shot in Mosul,” 12/24/08
- “More than 142 gunmen arrested during Mosul’s operations,” 5/13/08
- “Mosul blast leaves civilian killed, 2 wounded,” 1/24/09
- “Mosul car bomb kills 4, wounds 1,” 1/27/09
- “Neighborhood mayor gunned down in eastern Mosul,” 12/13/08
- “Ninewa blast wounds servicemen,” 1/21/09
- “Officer killed, 2 soldiers wounded in car bomb blast in Mosul,” 12/21/08
- “Oil protection element killed in Mosul,” 1/6/09
- “Operation Good Hope…fresh hope for Mosul residents?” 2/27/09
- “Policeman killed, 2 wounded in Mosul,” 2/5/09
- “Policeman killed, civilian wounded in Mosul blasts,” 11/6/08
- “Policeman killed, civilian wounded in separate incidents in Mosul,” 11/9/08
- “Policeman wounded in attack in Mosul,” 11/10/08
- “Policeman wounded in explosion in Mosul,” 2/2/09
- “Security forces detonate car bomb in Mosul,” 1/29/09
- “Senior police officer survives assassination attempt in Ninewa,” 2/11/09
- “Shabaki MP survives assassination attempt in Mosul,” 1/7/09
- “Soldier wounded by random fire in Mosul,” 11/24/08
- “Soldier wounded in IED blast in Mosul,” 2/19/09
- “Stocky IED injures 3 civilians in Mosul,” 1/28/09
- “Suicide attack kills soldier, wounds 3 in Mosul,” 2/11/09
- “Suicide bomber injures 2 cops in Mosul,” 11/19/08
- “Suicide car bomber wounds 3 in Mosul,” 2/9/09
- “Truck bomb kills 3 cops, injures civilian in Mosul,” 1/1/09
- “U.S. forces kill 3 brothers in Mosul,” 1/22/09
- “Unknown gunmen kill woman, wound 2 in Mosul,” 1/16/09
- “Woman shot down in western Mosul,” 12/13/08

Dagher, Sam, “Fractures in Iraq City as Kurds and Baghdad Vie,” New York Times, 10/28/08

Druzin, Heath, “Iraqis taking the lead? Yes and no,” Stars and Stripes, 2/22/09

Al-Dulaimy, Mohammed, “Found-up of Daily Violence in Iraq-Friday 2 January 2009,” 1/2/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq-Monday 12 January 2008,” 1/12/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq-Thursday 15 January 2008,” 1/15/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq-Tuesday 6 January 2008,” 1/6/09

DPA, “Three policeman killed, four injured in attacks in Iraq,” 11/5/08
- “Two killed, four wounded in clashes with al-Qaeda suspects,” 11/25/08

Flintoff, Corey, “Shift In Power Heightens Tensions In Iraqi City,” All Things Considered, NPR, 2/27/09

Hammoudi, Laith, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Monday 1 December 2008,” 12/1/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Saturday 29 November 2008,” 11/29/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Thursday 4 December 2009,” 12/4/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Thursday 29 January 2009,” 1/29/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 4 November 2008,” 11/4/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 16 December 2008,” 12/16/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 24 February 2009,” 2/24/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Wednesday, Feb. 11, 2009,” 2/11/09

Hammoudi, Laith and Al-Dulaimy, Mohammed, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Monday 5 January 2009,” 1/5/09

Hammoudi, Laith and Kadhim, Hussein, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Wednesday 21 January 2009,” 1/29/09

Issa, Sahar, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Friday 16 January 2009,” 1/16/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Friday 21 November 2008,” 11/21/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 13 January 2009,” 1/13/09

Al Jazeera, “Blast rocks Iraqi capital,” 11/12/08
- “Twin blasts target Baghdad police,” 12/17/08

Kadhim, Hussein, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq-Monday 3 November 2008,” 11/3/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq-Monday 24 November 2008,” 11/24/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Sunday 21 December 2008,” 12/21/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq - Thursday 12 February 2009,” 2/12/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Thursday 20 November 2008,” 11/20/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq-Thursday 25 December 2008,” 12/25/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 3 February 2009,” 2/3/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq-Tuesday 10 February 2009, 2/10/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 30 December 2008,” 12/30/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq-Tuesday 10 February 2009,” 2/10/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq-Wednesday 10 December 2008,” 12/10/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq-Wednesday 12 November 2008,” 11/12/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq-Wednesday 17 December 2008,” 12/17/08
- “Roundup of Daily Violence in Iraq – Monday 16 February 2009,” 2/16/09
- “Roundup of Daily Violence in Iraq – Monday 23 February 2009,” 2/23/09
- “Roundup of Daily Violence in Iraq – Thursday 26 February 2009,” 2/26/09
- “Roundup of Daily Violence in Iraq – Wednesday 7 January 2009,” 1/7/09
- “Roundup of Daily Violence in Iraq – Wednesday 25 February 2009,” 2/25/09

Kahl, Colin, Nagl, John, Brimley, Shawn, “Canceling Iraq’s Blank Check,” Foreign Policy, August 2008

Kamal, Adel, “new ninawa governor: no possibility of Kurdish alliance,” Niqash, 2/24/09

KUNA, “Iraqi PM admits failure of Umm Al-Rubai in military operation,” 9/18/08

Mohammed, Mujahid, “Iraq pours in police to protect Christians,” Agence France Presse, 10/12/08

Monsters & Critics, “Six people killed in Iraq clashes,” 2/7/09

Multi-National Forces-Iraq, “Attack at IP station in Mosul kills two, injures four Update to:20090224-05,” 2/24/09
- “Solider killed by indirect fire (Mosul),” 12/25/08

Robertson, Campbell, “Iraq Hands Death Penalty to 28 Cultists for Attacks,” New York Times, 2/27/09

Reuters, “Factbox – Security developments in Iraq, 09 Nov 2008,” 11/9/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Dec 1,” 12/1/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Dec 2,” 12/2/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Dec 4,” 12/4/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Dec 5,” 12/5/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Dec 6,” 12/6/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Dec 15,” 12/15/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Dec 16,” 12/16/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Dec 18,” 12/18/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Dec 21,” 12/21/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Dec 30,” 12/30/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Feb 4,” 2/4/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Feb 7,” 2/7/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Feb 9,” 2/9/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Feb 10,” 2/10/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Feb 11,” 2/11/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Feb 12,” 2/12/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Feb 14,” 2/14/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Feb 15,” 2/15/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Feb 19,” 2/19/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 1,” 1/1/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 2,” 1/2/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 3,” 1/3/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 5,” 1/5/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 9,” 1/9/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 11,” 1/11/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 13,” 1/13/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 14,” 1/14/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 15,” 1/15/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 16,” 1/16/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 18,” 1/18/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 20,” 1/20/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 25,” 1/25/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 26,” 1/26/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 2,” 11/2/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 3,” 11/3/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 4,” 11/4/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 6,” 11/6/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 8,” 11/8/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 12,” 11/12/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 15,” 11/15/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 17,” 11/17/08
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Nov 23,” 11/23/08
- “Suicide bomber kills deputy head of Iraq Sunni party,” 1/18/09
- “US, Iraq Launch New Bid To Eradicate Al-Qaeda,” 2/22/09

Samuels, Lennox, “Al Qaeda Nostra,” Newsweek, 5/21/08

Stairrett, Amanda Kim, “Battalion commander among 4 soldiers killed in Iraq,” Killeen Daily Herald, 2/14/09

Xinhua, “One killed, 15 wounded in car bombing in N Iraq,” 11/13/08
- “Suicide car bomb kills 16 in N Iraq,” 12/1/08
- “Suicide car bomber wounds 10 in northern Iraq,” 1/6/09
- “Suicide car bombing kills Iraqi soldier in N Iraq,” 2/11/09

Yacoub, Sameer, “US, Iraqi forces launch anti-al-Qaida offensive,” Associated Press, 2/22/09

2 comments:

AndrewSshi said...

What's al-Hadbaa's position on the Dawa government in Baghdad? Do they seem like they'd be co-optable by Maliki et al, or are they more like a Sinn Fein to the insurgents' IRA?

Joel Wing said...

I haven't heard anything about Dawa specifically, but in an interview with the party's leader and probable future governor in niqash:

http://www.niqash.org/content.php?contentTypeID=75&id=2393&lang=0

he said that he supports a strong central government, which is exactly what Maliki has been pushing.

Review The Ins & Outs Of Mesopotamia

Lyell, Thomas, The Ins & Outs Of Mesopotamia , Washington DC: Westphalia Press, 2016   Thomas Lyell was a magistrate during the Brit...